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Germany's ongoing deindustrialisation is no accident; key Green intellectuals have demanded precisely this for decades, and now the Greens are in government and they are getting what they want.
eugyppius
Oct 30, 2024
Volkswagen is mired in deep crisis. This flagship of the German automobile industry and symbol of our postwar economic miracle is awash in debt, battered by unrelentingly high labour and energy prices. The metalworkers’ union IG Metall have driven wages at Volkswagen to imprudent extremes, and the company has poured mountains of good money after bad in its grasping effort to develop serviceable and marketable electric vehicles.
VW have no choice if they are to survive our looming and entirely self-imposed ban on internal combustion engines. Alas, VW’s battery-powered cars compete poorly with foreign models from companies like Tesla and BYD, because electric vehicles are entirely different products that employ entirely different technologies, and there’s no reason that a leading producer of petrol-powered cars should also happen to be a leading producer of electric cars. Demanding, via political fiat, that your automobile industry begin producing a totally different product in the course of the next decade, is not all that different from abolishing your automobile industry.
This week, VW announced plans to cut tens of thousands of jobs and to close three factories. That is a very big deal, because they have never closed a single German factory before. I try to avoid economic topics, but this story is so much bigger than economics. As Daniel Gräber wrote in Cicero last month, “the VW crisis has become a symbol for the decline of our entire country.”
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Exploring the Allergy Diagnostics Market: Trends, Drivers, and Innovations
The global Allergy Diagnostics Market is experiencing robust growth, fueled by an increased prevalence of allergies, advancements in diagnostic technologies, and heightened awareness among patients and healthcare professionals. With a rising global health burden associated with allergic diseases, allergy diagnostics play a crucial role in accurate detection and management, enabling better treatment outcomes.
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What Are Allergies and Why Are Diagnostics Essential?
Allergies occur when the immune system reacts to substances like pollen, food, or pet dander, triggering symptoms ranging from mild irritations to severe anaphylaxis. Diagnosing allergies involves identifying specific allergens causing adverse reactions, which is vital for developing targeted treatment plans and preventing severe allergic responses.
The Allergy Diagnostics Market encompasses products, technologies, and services used in detecting allergens. This includes skin prick tests, blood tests (specific IgE testing), patch tests, and molecular diagnostic methods. These tools have revolutionized the diagnostic landscape, offering accuracy, reliability, and quicker results.
Key Drivers of the Allergy Diagnostics Market
Rising Allergy Prevalence: Allergies affect approximately 20-30% of the global population, with respiratory, food, and skin allergies being the most common. Factors like urbanization, pollution, and changing dietary habits have contributed to this increase.
Technological Advancements: Modern diagnostic technologies such as ELISA, multiplex assays, and microarray platforms enhance test sensitivity and specificity, making them indispensable tools in laboratories worldwide.
Increased Awareness: Public health campaigns and growing awareness about allergic conditions have led to higher demand for diagnostic services, particularly in developed regions.
Growing Pediatric Population: Children are often more susceptible to allergies, making early diagnostics crucial. This demographic significantly drives market demand.
Government and Private Initiatives: Supportive healthcare policies, funding for allergy research, and reimbursement schemes bolster the market.
Segmentation of the Allergy Diagnostics Market
By Product Type:
Assay Kits: Widely used for in vitro allergy testing, these kits are integral to laboratory workflows.
Instruments: Devices such as immunoassay analyzers, PCR systems, and skin testing instruments.
Consumables: Reagents, probes, and other materials necessary for diagnostics.
By Test Type:
In Vivo Testing: Includes skin prick and intradermal tests.
In Vitro Testing: Blood-based tests like specific IgE and total IgE quantification.
By Allergen Type:
Food Allergens: Milk, eggs, nuts, and seafood.
Inhalant Allergens: Pollen, mold, and pet dander.
Drug Allergens: Penicillin and other antibiotics.
Other Allergens: Insect venom and contact allergens.
By End User:
Hospitals and Clinics: Major centers for allergy testing.
Diagnostic Laboratories: Offer specialized testing services.
Academic and Research Institutes: Focused on allergen research and development.
Regional Insights: Allergy Diagnostics Market
North America: Leading the market due to advanced healthcare infrastructure, high allergy prevalence, and significant R&D investments. The U.S. dominates this region.
Europe: Rising allergy awareness and government initiatives support growth. Countries like Germany and the UK are key players.
Asia-Pacific: Exhibiting the fastest growth due to increasing healthcare access, urbanization, and pollution levels. Emerging economies like China and India drive regional expansion.
Rest of the World: Markets in Latin America and the Middle East are growing steadily, with improving healthcare systems and rising allergy awareness.
Innovations Shaping the Allergy Diagnostics Market
Molecular Diagnostics: Techniques like recombinant allergen testing provide precise results by identifying allergen components at the molecular level.
Point-of-Care Testing: Portable allergy testing devices enable faster diagnostics, particularly beneficial in resource-limited settings.
Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI-powered tools analyze patient data for personalized allergy management and improved diagnostic accuracy.
Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS): Advanced genomic tools are being explored for understanding allergen sensitivity at a genetic level.
Multiplex Testing Platforms: These platforms allow simultaneous detection of multiple allergens, saving time and resources.
Challenges in the Allergy Diagnostics Market
High Costs: Advanced diagnostic tests can be expensive, limiting accessibility in developing regions.
Lack of Standardization: Variability in testing procedures and results across laboratories remains a concern.
Limited Awareness in Emerging Markets: Although awareness is increasing, many regions still lack adequate knowledge and facilities for allergy diagnostics.
The Future of the Allergy Diagnostics Market
The Allergy Diagnostics Market is poised for sustained growth, driven by continuous innovations and the rising global allergy burden. Emerging trends such as wearable diagnostic devices, mobile health applications, and telemedicine integration are expected to redefine the market dynamics. Additionally, increased focus on preventive healthcare and personalized medicine will further enhance diagnostic capabilities.
Conclusion
The Allergy Diagnostics Market is a dynamic and evolving space, addressing critical healthcare needs worldwide. As the prevalence of allergic conditions rises, the demand for accurate, accessible, and advanced diagnostic solutions will continue to grow. Stakeholders in this market must prioritize innovation, affordability, and patient education to ensure widespread adoption and improved healthcare outcomes.
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Active users on instagram
Active users on instagram android#
Active users on instagram plus#
81% of people use Instagram for research on companies, products, and services.
Users spend an average of 30 minutes a day on Instagram.
Instagram has over 1 billion monthly active users.
You’ve got some very valuable Instagram reels statistics under your belt, but here are a few very important general Instagram statistics that you should know as well:
Khaby Lame holds the most-viewed Instagram reel at 283 million (and counting).
70% of marketers are looking to increase ad spend in video.
Reels receive more engagement than regular video content at a rate of about 22%.
Reels can be featured on the Explore page, where 50% of Instagram users go to discover new content.
NBA teams’ reels have gained 22% more engagement.
The Los Angeles Lakers have the most engagement on Instagram reels with over 385k engagements and over 6.8M views on one video.
20 out of 30 NBA teams use reels and have had great success.
There was no increase in daily active users in India after reels launched.
Time spent on Instagram in India after reels launched increased by 3.5%.
Instagram app downloads increased by 11.4% in India after reels launched (from 7 million to 7.8 million).
Instagram reels launched in India on July 12, 2020.
87% of Gen Z TikTok users agree that reels is basically the same as TikTok.
In June 2020, IG reels expanded to France and Germany.
Nike averages 4.6 million views per reel, and many other brands share the same success.
Instagram users increased in Brazil by 4.34% after the launch.
Reels launched first in Brazil as “Cenas”.
Instagram reels was released on Augin over 50 countries.
Let’s get started! Instagram Reels Stats- Summary We’re also going to explain a bit more about Instagram reels so that you have a solid understanding of what it is and what it does. We’re going to bring you some Instagram reels statistics that can help you see the value behind the content format. It’s important to have a good understanding of all different content formats on Instagram to have a well-rounded strategy, so you may be wondering, how valuable are IG reels for my content creation? Well, Instagram reels got its start similarly to that of Instagram stories, and it’s gained some serious traction on Instagram. Instagram stories now house some serious power for brands and businesses, as many Instagram stories statistics clearly show. How do you think it’s been able to stay so relevant and popular over the span of 10+ years?Īlong the way, there have been other competing social media platforms that have emerged, prompting Instagram to create some new features to help keep their platform popular and at the forefront of social media usage.įor instance, do you remember Snapchat? It had gained such a stronghold that Instagram decided to implement Instagram stories, one of the best decisions it’s ever made. This article originally appeared on has been around since 2010, and it’s constantly evolving to become even better than it was the day before. SimilarWeb collects data through a global panel, ISP data, public data sources and direct measurement data. Instagram and Snapchat haven’t released this type of data since last year.Īs for Snapchat’s jump in time spent in October, it could have something to do with the introduction of its 3D World Lenses, but we don’t know.
Active users on instagram android#
SimilarWeb’s numbers, which only include Android data, are similar to those previously put out by the companies themselves. Facebook and Instagram have said they want to do the same. Apple recently announced new features inside its latest iOS that will show people how much time they spend using certain apps. What makes that competition interesting is that some companies (think Apple and Facebook) are also starting to come around to the idea that there should be limits - or at the very least, more information - about how much time people spend using their products.
Active users on instagram plus#
These apps, plus more traditional media companies like Disney and Netflix, are all looking to capture attention in an increasingly competitive landscape. The big war on mobile devices right now is for user attention. Time spent matters because more time in the app means people probably see more advertisements, which is how all these apps make money.
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the production and variety of chemical products exploded
At the end of the 19th century, the production and variety of chemical products exploded. Large-scale chemical industries also formed in Germany and later the United States. The production of artificial fertilizers for agriculture was pioneered by Sir John Lawes in his specially built Rothamsted Research. In the 1840s, he established a large factory near London to produce superphosphate. In the 1840s, Charles Goodyear of the United States and Thomas Hancock of the United Kingdom applied for a patent for the rubber vulcanization process. The first synthetic dye was discovered in London by William Henry Parkin. He partially converted aniline into a crude mixture, and after extraction with alcohol, a dark purple substance was produced. He also invented the first synthetic perfume. However, it was German industry that quickly began to dominate the field of synthetic dyes. Three major companies, BASF, Bayer and Hoechst, produce hundreds of different dyes. By 1913, German industry produced nearly 90% of the world’s dye supply and sold approximately 80% of its products abroad. In the United States, Herbert Henry Dow used electrochemistry to produce chemicals from brine Has achieved commercial success and helped promote the country’s chemical industry
The petrochemical industry can be traced back to the oil plants of James Young in Scotland and Abraham Pineo Gesner in Canada. The first plastic was invented by the British metallurgist Alexander Parks. In 1856, he applied for a patent for Parkesine, a celluloid based on nitrocellulose and treated with multiple solvents. This material was exhibited at the London International Exhibition in 1862. It foresees many modern aesthetics of plastics. And practical use. In 1885, William Lever and his brother James were in Lancashire based on the modern chemical process invented by William Hough Watson using glycerin and vegetable oil , Began to use vegetable oil to produce soap
By the 1920s, chemical companies merged into large conglomerates; IG Farben in Germany, Rhône-Poulenc in France, and Imperial Chemical Industries in the UK. DuPont became a major chemical company in the United States in the early 20th century. Polymers and plastics, such as polyethylene, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, and polycarbonate, account for about 80% of global industrial production. These materials are usually converted into fluoropolymers Highly corrosive materials for industrial transportation. Chemicals are used in many different consumer products, but they are also used in many different other sectors; including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and service industries. Major industrial customers include Rubber and plastic products, textiles, clothing, petroleum refining, pulp and paper, and primary metals. Chemicals is a global company worth nearly 3 trillion U.S. dollars, and chemical companies in the European Union and the United States are the world's largest producers.
The sales of chemical business can be divided into several categories, including basic chemicals (about 35-37% of total output), life sciences (30%), specialty chemicals (20-25%) and consumer products (about 10%). %). Basic chemicals or "commercial chemicals" are a broad chemical category that includes polymers, bulk petrochemical products and intermediates, other derivatives and basic industrial products, inorganic chemicals, and fertilizers.
Polymers are the largest revenue segment, including all types of plastics and man-made fibers. The main market for plastics is packaging, followed by household construction, containers, electrical appliances, plumbing, transportation, toys and games.
The largest polymer product is polyethylene (PE), which is mainly used in packaging films and other markets such as milk bottles, containers, and pipes. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is another high-volume product, mainly used in the manufacture of pipes and siding in the construction market, and in a smaller range for transportation and packaging materials. Polypropylene (PP) is similar in volume to PVC and is used in markets such as packaging, home appliances, containers, clothing, and carpets. Polystyrene (PS) is another large-volume plastic, mainly used in appliances, packaging, toys and entertainment. The main man-made fibers include polyester, nylon, polypropylene, and acrylic, which are used in clothing, home furnishing, and other industrial and consumer applications. The main raw materials of polymers are bulk petrochemical products such as ethylene, propylene and benzene.
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Immunoglobulin Products Market Status and Trend Analysis 2017-2026 (COVID-19 Version)
Due to the pandemic, we have included a special section on the Impact of COVID 19 on the Immunoglobulin Products Market Status and Trend Analysis 2017-2026 (COVID-19 Version) 2020-2026 which would mention How the Covid-19 is Affecting the Industry, Market Trends and Potential Opportunities in the COVID-19 Landscape, Key Regions and Proposal for Immunoglobulin Products Market Status and Trend Analysis 2017-2026 (COVID-19 Version) Players to battle Covid-19 Impact.
Immunoglobulin Products Market Status and Trend Analysis 2017-2026 (COVID-19 Version) 2020-2026The
Immunoglobulin Products Market Status and Trend Analysis 2017-2026 (COVID-19 Version) 2020-2026
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Electrical & Electronic Computer-Aided Design Market 2020 Research, Share, Size, Growth, Competitor Strategy and Trends by Forecast to 2026
Electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) comprises electrical and electronic CAD solutions. It is a software for creating and modifying both layouts and diagrams and layouts of electrical circuits such as printed circuit boards (PCB), integrated circuits (ICs), and cabling systems. ECAD software help engineers to create electrical schematic designs and systems seamlessly and at a rapid pace as compared to traditional, by-hand methods with higher accuracy and precision. This software is widely used to automate tasks such as filling out components lists and bills of materials (BoM). ECAD is used for various purposes such as diagramming, 3D assembly, concurrent designing, and generating manufacturing documentation.
Global Electrical Computer-Aided Design (ECAD) Market is highly competitive, with the presence of several vendors offering feature-rich and innovative solutions to their customers. The major vendors profiled in the study are Autodesk, Inc., ANSYS Inc., EPLAN Software & Service GmbH & Co. KG, Bentley Systems, Inc., Siemens PLM, Trimble Inc., Dassault Systèmes SE, Zuken, AUCOTEC, Mentor Graphics, WSCAD, IGE+XAO, ALPI International Software, and SIENNA ECAD Technologies.
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Regional Analysis
The geographic analysis of the Global ECAD Market has been conducted for North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East & Africa, and South America.
North America is expected to be the largest market for ECAD solutions during the forecast period. North America has been segmented into three countries, namely the US, Canada, and Mexico.
The US is the leading market in North America, accounting for a significant market share. The electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market in the US is expected to grow significantly, owing to the presence of major players. The market growth in the country can be attributed to the increasing urbanization, advances in digital technology, higher disposable incomes, and the high demand for advanced manufacturing robotic technologies. In addition to it, favorable government policies to help factory automation are contributing to the growth of the global market. Adding to it, the market growth is driven by the increased demand for intelligent and automated manufacturing systems and the rising focus on digitization of oil fields to adopt industry 4.0.
Europe is projected to hold the second spot (in terms of market share) in the overall market during the forecast period. Europe is segmented into the UK, Germany, France, and the rest of Europe. The market growth is attributed mainly to advancements in cloud-based ECAD tools and services. The main factors contributing to the growth of the electronic computer-aided design (ECAD) market in Europe are the low cost of adoption and greater storage capabilities of cloud-based solutions and services. The collaboration of major players with small start-ups for the development of computer-aided design tools is boosting the market growth.
The market in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The market growth is attributable to the need for on-the-go graphic designing via mobile apps for smart factories and industrial manufacturing. Moreover, the automotive markets in South Korea, Japan, and China are growing rapidly and contribute nearly 30% of the overall market. The rising development of electric vehicles and their testing has also resulted in the growth of the electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market.
In the Middle East & Africa, the country of Saudi Arabia holds the major oil fields, and the industry is increasingly adopting industrial automation equipment. The country offers opportunities for the metal, mining, and material industries to increase their production and efficiency. The demand for ECAD software is also driven by the high cost of labor, encouraging the companies to adopt industrial automation.
The South American region is witnessing an increase in investments and government initiatives to support advances in technology. In this regard, the developments in the manufacturing and industrial sectors in the region are anticipated to be the key driver for the ECAD market during the forecast period. Brazil is an emerging economy in South America. The growth of the ECAD market in Brazil is attributed to the developments in machine learning and computer vision technologies for manufacturing processes. Brazil exhibits a strong demand for software for mining, drilling automation, and oil extraction applications.
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At Market Research Future (MRFR), we enable our customers to unravel the complexity of various industries through our Cooked Research Report (CRR), Half-Cooked Research Reports (HCRR), Raw Research Reports (3R), Continuous-Feed Research (CFR), and Market Research & Consulting Edibles. MRFR team have supreme objective to provide the optimum quality market research and intelligence services to our clients. Our market research studies by products, services, technologies, applications, end users, and market players for global, regional, and country level market segments, enable our clients to see more, know more, and do more, which help to answer all their most important questions. In order to stay updated with technology and work process of the industry, MRFR often plans & conducts meet with the industry experts and industrial visits for its research analyst members.
Contact: Market Research Future 528, Amanora Chambers, Magarpatta Road, Hadapsar Pune – 411028, Maharashtra, India Email: [email protected]
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Electrical & Electronic Computer-Aided Design (ECAD) Market Outlook and Development Status Review
Market Overview
Global ECAD Market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 8.5% during the forecast period (2020-2026).
Electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) is big business, and the market is driven by the increasing use of cloud-based ECAD solutions and increasing demand for electronic design automation. According to the MRFR analysis, Cadence Design System Inc. occupied the first position in the ECAD market. The company has a stronghold over nearly all the major markets, including North America and Europe. The company concentrates on continuous research & development, which helps the company to have a competitive edge over other key players operating in the market. The company has a comprehensive product portfolio and a strong customer base.
Segmental Analysis
The Global ECAD Market has been segmented based on component, industry type, application, vertical, and region.
Based on component, the global computer-aided design (ECAD) market has been segmented into software and services. The software segment accounted for the larger market share in 2019, and it is expected to register a CAGR of 7.8% during the forecast period. The services segment was the second-largest market in 2019.
The global electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market, by industry type, has been divided into the process industry and discrete industry. The discrete industry segment accounted for the largest market share, and it is expected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
By application, the market has been segmented into industrial machine controls, rail signaling, plant design, mining equipment control, switchgear design, water treatment and distribution system control, and others. The industrial machine controls segment is expected to dominate the market during the forecast period.
The verticals studied for the market research report are automotive, aerospace & defense, construction, equipment and machinery, railway, power generation and energy, oil & gas, food & beverage, and others. The automotive segment is anticipated to lead the global electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market over the forecast period.
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Competitive Analysis
The key players of the global ECAD market include Zuken (Japan), Aucotec AG (Germany), WSCAD (Germany), MENTOR GRAPHICS (US), Autodesk Inc. (US), Sienna Ecad Technologies (India), Dassault Systèmes SE (France), TRIMBLE INC. (US), Hexagon AB (Sweden), IGE+XAO Group (France), Siemens AG (Germany), Eplan Software & Service Gmbh & Co. KG (Germany), Bentley Systems, Inc.(US), ALPI International Software SA (France), and Cadence Design System Inc. (US).
Regional Analysis
The geographic analysis of the Global ECAD Market has been conducted for North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East & Africa, and South America.
North America is expected to be the largest market for ECAD solutions during the forecast period. North America has been segmented into three countries, namely the US, Canada, and Mexico.
The US is the leading market in North America, accounting for a significant market share. The electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market in the US is expected to grow significantly, owing to the presence of major players. The market growth in the country can be attributed to the increasing urbanization, advances in digital technology, higher disposable incomes, and the high demand for advanced manufacturing robotic technologies. In addition to it, favorable government policies to help factory automation are contributing to the growth of the global market. Adding to it, the market growth is driven by the increased demand for intelligent and automated manufacturing systems and the rising focus on digitization of oil fields to adopt industry 4.0.
Europe is projected to hold the second spot (in terms of market share) in the overall market during the forecast period. Europe is segmented into the UK, Germany, France, and the rest of Europe. The market growth is attributed mainly to advancements in cloud-based ECAD tools and services. The main factors contributing to the growth of the electronic computer-aided design (ECAD) market in Europe are the low cost of adoption and greater storage capabilities of cloud-based solutions and services. The collaboration of major players with small start-ups for the development of computer-aided design tools is boosting the market growth.
The market in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The market growth is attributable to the need for on-the-go graphic designing via mobile apps for smart factories and industrial manufacturing. Moreover, the automotive markets in South Korea, Japan, and China are growing rapidly and contribute nearly 30% of the overall market. The rising development of electric vehicles and their testing has also resulted in the growth of the electrical computer-aided design (ECAD) market.
In the Middle East & Africa, the country of Saudi Arabia holds the major oil fields, and the industry is increasingly adopting industrial automation equipment. The country offers opportunities for the metal, mining, and material industries to increase their production and efficiency. The demand for ECAD software is also driven by the high cost of labor, encouraging the companies to adopt industrial automation.
The South American region is witnessing an increase in investments and government initiatives to support advances in technology. In this regard, the developments in the manufacturing and industrial sectors in the region are anticipated to be the key driver for the ECAD market during the forecast period. Brazil is an emerging economy in South America. The growth of the ECAD market in Brazil is attributed to the developments in machine learning and computer vision technologies for manufacturing processes. Brazil exhibits a strong demand for software for mining, drilling automation, and oil extraction applications.
Browse Full Report Details @ https://www.marketresearchfuture.com/reports/electrical-electronic-computer-aided-design-market-10306
About Market Research Future:
At Market Research Future (MRFR), we enable our customers to unravel the complexity of various industries through our Cooked Research Report (CRR), Half-Cooked Research Reports (HCRR), Raw Research Reports (3R), Continuous-Feed Research (CFR), and Market Research & Consulting Edibles. MRFR team have supreme objective to provide the optimum quality market research and intelligence services to our clients. Our market research studies by products, services, technologies, applications, end users, and market players for global, regional, and country level market segments, enable our clients to see more, know more, and do more, which help to answer all their most important questions. In order to stay updated with technology and work process of the industry, MRFR often plans & conducts meet with the industry experts and industrial visits for its research analyst members.
Contact: Market Research Future 528, Amanora Chambers, Magarpatta Road, Hadapsar Pune – 411028, Maharashtra, India Email: [email protected]
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There has been a surge within female players, and the popularity of e-sports live broadcasts has risen; however the game industry still must face these issues after the epidemic!
An epidemic in 2020 brought a fatal blow to countless industries, however the gaming industry was a blessing in disguise. In the times of "National Home", video gaming have turn out to be the main enjoyment for many individuals. World-class game makers such as for example Microsoft, Nintendo, Twitch, and Activision are all growing vigorously in the epidemic era. In April, Microsoft exposed that the amount of subscribers to Game Pass for its games has surpassed 10 million. Newzoo, a game market research organization, offers released a new "Global Game Industry Market Research Report 2020." The document pointed out that due to the effect of the new coronavirus epidemic and the solid advertising of next-era consoles, the global gaming industry income in 2020 will be likely to reach 159.3 billion US dollars, a year-on-12 months increase of 9.3%. A good start has triggered people's expectations for the future growth of the game industry. A fresh batch of sport version numbers was released, and many stocks in the online game industry rose. Accordingly, the global sport market is also heating system up. The amount of users has increased, sales have increased, and peripheral industries have flourished. So, where if the game industry go after the epidemic is over? And in this, do you know the new challenges? The rise of mobile games brings large changes in user attributes. Based on the Global Cell phone Market Report, the global mobile game marketplace will create 77.2 billion U.S. dollars in income in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. This increase is mainly due to the large amount of time people devote to smartphones. Lengthen. For instance, in Asia, due to the closure of general public places, players who have been doing offers in Web cafes for a long period have to move their "battlefield" to their mobile phones. The popular domestic game marketplace has completely changed the male to female ratio in the entire player group. The convenience, simplicity, and ease of use have attracted a large number of female players. Consider the Chinese market place for example. As early as 2018, informal games accounted for 43.39% of the mobile game market place. The representative games "Nuan Nuan", "Travel Frog", and "Love and Maker" triggered social media. The dialogue boom offers attracted more female players to become listed on. In the entire Chinese mobile sport market, female players accounted for a staggering 46.2%. This is totally unimaginable in the Personal computer and console sport market, which is dominated by competition and customs clearance.
Travel frogs that exploded a few years ago, the image originates from the Internet The social isolation as a result of the epidemic has allowed the mobile game marketplace to harvest a large number of new players. As more and more female players enter the game world, eventually the male to feminine ratio of mobile game users will get nearer and nearer to 50-50. In foreign countries, ultra-casual games are also very popular. In america iOS free listing on April 20, three female-oriented ultra-casual mini sport products appeared in the very best 10, namely "Super Salon", "Lip Art 3D" and "Being pregnant Idle 3D Simulator".
American women also such as dress-up online games, the picture originates from the Internet From the perspective of game attributes, female users at home and abroad have little difference in their action preferences. This type of growth and placement sport will not require players to invest too much energy to learn the game play mechanism. Such games often enable female players to get a stronger need to share, which makes it relatively easy to understand such games. The growth cycle of competitive mobile games is often long, and producers need to invest lots of money and human resources to produce a game with relatively good gameplay and graphics. Consider the domestically popular "Glory of the King" for example. Initially, it took almost three years to build up a 30-person team from Tencent's inner task to the formal internal check. The overall game balance mechanism, original artwork, and combat values ??all require a little polishing. This is why many game makers can directly duplicate the worldview, plot, character settings and other sections of the mobile game that may reflect the IP worth of the initial mobile sport to the mobile game edition in the period of mobile games, and only need to polish the new battle information. The sections linked to the worldview and plot are often the slowest part for programmers to accomplish and the fastest for players to consume.
The most popular mobile game in China, "Glory of the King", the picture originates from the Internet Just imagine that these major sport companies can save effort and time to make mobile games, not to mention those little studios that have a huge need for capital chains. From the developer's viewpoint, the female-to-super-casual game not only has low analysis and development costs, but additionally includes a relatively determined possible user group at home and abroad, which is very convenient to understand. This can be a good breakthrough direction for small sport companies or studios which have been strike hard by the epidemic. However, the bonus of casual mobile games will also create a potential risk, that is, the ultra-short growth time allows the mobile sport marketplace to be included in a large number of casual games, and aggressive mobile games that require an extended development time will undoubtedly be robbed of assets. . So, will the male players who pursue aggressive and the sense of accomplishment of clearance shed, or even quit the ranks of mobile game players the most? This is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the transformation of the mobile market of conventional game manufacturers.
The characters, vehicles, and the appearance of firearms in the peace elite can all become toll points. The image originates from the Internet If you want to attract high-viscosity male and feminine users simultaneously, then major sport manufacturers may make reference to Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Peace Elite" two games to attract male players with competitive gameplay. Functions such as for example skins can attract feminine players and create charging factors. The e-sports industry is more and more powerful, and League of Legends is hardly a successor. In the past couple of months, e-sports has become increasingly more popular due to the suspension of sports events around the world. Numerous traditional sports TV channels also have begun to broadcast e-sports games such as for example basketball, football, rugby, and racing games. But in the game live life broadcast industry, Twitch is still one of the most popular live broadcast systems, and its own data has already reached fresh heights during the epidemic. In the weeks following outbreak, the amount of live sport views reached 869 million minutes per day, an increase of 20% when compared to two weeks before the pandemic. The most popular game live life broadcasts viewed by users are League of Legends and Call of Duty. Two games.
Views information from January to March on Twitch, pictures from the Internet Jason Lake, CEO of Complexity, the gaming business, said: “You can view that millions of people who didn't know anything about e-sports are now participating in the game.” Along with gaining more audiences, e-sports is still The epidemic period has attracted more sponsors. Not long ago, the world-renowned automobile manufacturer BMW (BMW) announced that it will sponsor e-sports groups within Britain, Germany, Southern Korea and China. Actually, mainstream companies getting into the e-sports industry to expand their impact among teenagers aren't new. As early as 2018, after China's RNG e-sports golf club and IG e-sports golf club swept the League of Legends international championship title, famous manufacturers such as for example Mercedes-Benz and Chevrolet Auto manufacturers begun to sponsor LPL (China League of Legends Best League) groups. Mercedes-Benz actually obtained the chief naming correct of LPL.
Poster of the 2019 LPL Summertime Finals, the image originates from the Internet As traditional entity producers pay more and more attention to younger design, e-sports, as a super portal for young users, has become a battleground. Albi Pagenstert, Head of Brand name Strategy and PR of BMW America, said within an interview: "This sponsorship isn't to sell cars to players, but to increase its influence on the list of new era of people. Because e-sports is currently young The crowd includes a great influence." This is also a clear sign that e-sports is increasingly accepted and acknowledged by the mainstream society. And all parties' capital expense in e-sports is also growing, and e-sports is just nearby as a world-recognized sport. However, the near future growth of the e-sports industry isn't without risks. The current e-sports industry has such a large market viewers, "League of Legends" will be indispensable. Its programmer fist and operator Tencent's successful procedure of the game's peripheral e-sports industry has made it a phenomenal sport. However, this has caused the current viewers in the e-sports industry to focus on a large area of ??the sport "League of Legends", and other games have much less attention than this sport. Needless to say, both Overwatch and PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds that have appeared previously few years have tried to drive the growth of the encompassing e-sports industry through the game itself. Unfortunately, their R&D operators either haven't any e-sports gene or the grade of the game itself is easy enough. So that it didn't threaten the dominance of "League of Legends" in the e-sports industry. Assuming that the reputation of "League of Legends" drops, plus there is absolutely no brand new king sport to take over, then the entire e-sports industry will be affected.
In the past two years, the good international results attained by the Chinese division have made "League of Legends" lots of heat. The image originates from the Internet Super IP + fresh technology may be the way out for future online games? Although in the first quarter of 2020, the amount of downloads of sport products, the amount of online users, and the sales of hardware devices have repeatedly hit fresh highs, major sport manufacturers also have encountered difficulties in producing. In February 2020, there was no new sport in the very best ten of the sport revenue listing, and there were only 4 fresh games that entered the App Store's best 200 best-selling listing, setting a new low in modern times. The quantity of video marketing during the same time period Among the top 50, you can find only 3 fresh games. Plus some big IP sequels such as for example "Diablo 3" and "Call of Duty" series rely on the excellent sport quality of the prior games and good enough sport content to keep to sell well. Although every major game manufacturer offers its flagship items, just how these games are performed in real life still needs to rely on computers or consoles. Recently, the addition of fresh technologies such as for example cloud streaming technology, motion capture, AI training, and VR\AR has allowed the game industry to build up towards lightweight, cloud-based, and practical development. These fresh technologies are more or less showcased by sport manufacturers at major sport exhibitions or curently have a certain group of players, such as for example Microsoft's "Airline flight Simulator 2020", and the VR audio game "produced by Facebook's studios" "Rhythm Lightsaber" and Valve VR masterpiece "Half-Existence: Alex" are flagship sport works that may represent the near future development of the game industry.
"Half-living: Alex" has become a representative of a new era of VR games, the picture originates from the Internet Later on game industry, the intervention of new technologies has become a formality, but even during the epidemic period, the info of the game industry is really good, it will still devote some time for new technologies to be popularized in the game industry and enter the homes of mass players. Taking VR/AR for example, I believe that most folks are very desiring the future games depicted within "Ready Player A single". The games in this film are developed predicated on VR and AR. Players come in a totally virtual space. Can play games freely.
The description into the future game in "Top Player" is fascinating, the picture originates from the Internet Certainly, VR and AR games are both development development of future games, also it seems that they are really likely to become people's mainstream enjoyment in the future. But the reputation of VR and AR games has an insurmountable mountain-hardware devices. At existing, the costs of VR and AR sport devices in the marketplace are usually relatively high. Consuming Samsung Xuanlong MR+VR eyeglasses somatosensory game system for example, its selling price has already reached 3999 yuan, while some domestic VR sport devices such as for example Aiqi Art's Adventure 2S is also 2199 yuan.
The expensive VR glasses, the picture originates from the screenshot of Jingdong official website Such a price will not appear to be very costly, but they cannot form an unbiased game operating platform like PS4 and Xbox. Players still need to configure a higher PC computer for use when working with VR devices, plus the purchase of games Price, which makes it very expensive for players to utilize VR devices to play games. Therefore, the current VR games in the marketplace often exist within the promotional videos of major sport exhibitions or VR sport experience halls within shopping malls. Apart from the novel gameplay expertise, there is minimal player stickiness at all. Along with hardware issues, the innovation of sport content is also a major challenge for future game growth. Since VR/AR entered the game marketplace in 2015, the majority of the items produced by major producers have added VR gameplay to the initial product line, even though some well-known functions such as for example "Call of Duty" and "Grand Theft Auto" "The response is good, however the loyal players of these masterpieces are too big, and the game behaviors of the player community for many years have been solidified. Thus, it is problematic for such games to attract more player organizations through VR gameplay, and it is furthermore difficult to open a predicament in the emerging future game industry. This leaves several opportunities for some motion picture and television or novel IP outside the game circle. Pokemon Move, which became popular worldwide in 2016, is a very good example.
"Pokemon Go" is still hot in 2020, the image is from the official site of Pokemon Go
Pokemon, a good anime that has been popular worldwide for decades, carries the youthful recollections of various generations, and having the ability to go through the plot in film and television personally will do for many players to dig out their childhood feelings of Zhong Er wallet. In the end, who doesn't want a Pikachu? Thus, when major sport companies are investing big sums of money to seize the game market in the future, you may wish to take into account the joint growth of various film and television IPs which have been popular to form a dual complement of content + technologies, which will not only show the exterior world The new technologies that I have mastered may also make the game "split the circle" and attract more players through the classic IP. In an epidemic in 2020, the near future player user groups, game technology forms, and e-sports industry will develop in a good or bad direction, but whichever direction it really is, it will undoubtedly provide earth-shaking changes to the entire gaming industry. Change. Do you have any expectations for the game industry after the epidemic? Arrive and tell us in the comments section!
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dpa-AFX stock exchange day at a glance: Dax is striving towards record high | 20/1/20
dpa-AFX stock exchange day at a glance: Dax is striving towards record high | 20/1/20
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GERMANY: – SPARKLY CHANGED – Positive overseas stipulations in the back of the eyes of investors on the German stock market are again heading for the Dax record in the new week (DAX 30). The broker IG estimated the stock market barometer on Monday just under two hours before the Xetra…
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Woolworths up 2pc on $1.7b buy-back
The S&P/ASX 200 has received a boost from Woolworth's announcements this morning. Woolworths is up 2.2 per cent to $31.07 and the consumer staples sector is currently out-performing the rest of the market with a rise of 1.6 per cent compared to a 0.7 per cent rise in across the S&P/ASX 200 index. Information technology and healthcare are also out-performing. The communications sector is the worst performer with a drop of 0.4 per cent, dragged by Telstra falling 1 per cent to $3.28 and TPG Telecom falling 1.8 per cent to $6.82. Meanwhile the best performers on the broader All Ordinaries include Alliance Mineral Assets, up 5.7 per cent, and Australian Agricultural Holdings is up 5.4 per cent. Paragon Care is down 6.7 per cent and Stanmore coal is down 4.3 per cent. Woolworths will buy-back $1.7 billion worth of shares off market in May, has sold its Petrol business, and will shut 30 Big W stores over the next three years at a cost of $370 million. Woolworths has about 185 Big W stores around the country. "While the recovery in trading for Big W is encouraging and there remains further opportunity for improvement, the speed of conversion to earnings improvement is taking longer than planned," Woolworth chief executive Brad Banducci told the market today. The Big W division is expected to report a loss of between $80 million and $100 million in the current financial year, despite 6 per cent sales growth in the three months to the end of March. "We understand the impact that the store and distribution centre closures will have on our team and will endeavour to provide affected team members with alternative employment options within the Woolworths Group where possible." The S&P/ASX 200 has jumped 27 points to 6207 this morning, a rise of 0.4 per cent. Early leaders include Fortescue Metals, up 3.3 per cent to $7.34, and Afterpay Touch is up 2.9 per cent to $21.57. Eclipx Group is up 3 per cent to 66 cent. Early laggers include Regis Resources with a 1.8 per cent drop to $5.20 and Emeco Holdings is down 1.3 per cent to $1.90. Trading activity is intense around Fortescue and BHP, and AMP. AMP Capital has recorded a resounding win in an auction to buy Infratil's stake in the ANU Student Accommodation auction. This morning Infratil announced AMP Capital will buy its half share in the 30-year concession - and also secured the 50 per cent owned by one of Infratil manager Morrison's private clients. It means AMP Capital will buy full control of the student housing project and it is understood to be paying more than $700 million for the privilege. Macquarie Capital advised AMP Capital and is helping fund the deal. The funding package was said to be a key reason why AMP Capital emerged from the auction ahead of rival infrastructure manager Plenary Group, which also made a binding bid. Infratil first announced plans to seek to sell its 50 per cent stake in November. "We continue to believe that the ANU portfolio is the standout portfolio in the on-campus purpose built student accommodation sector in Australia in terms of both scale and quality. However, the broader platform Infratil intended to develop using the ANU portfolio as a cornerstone has not eventuated," Morrison & Co executive Mark Mudie told the market this morning. Infratil will instead focus on renewable energy, retirement services, and data and connectivity. Read the Street Talk item here. Asaleo Care has sold its tissue business to Solaris Paper for $180 million. The brands changing hands include Sorbent, Handee Ultra, and Deeko. Asaleo will keep its Australasian personal care and business to business operations, and the consumer tissue business in New Zealand the Pacific Islands. "The sale proceeds will significantly strengthen our balance sheet, reduce net debt and improve our leverage ratio," Asaleo's chief executive Sid Takla told the market this morning. "The sale enables us to concentrate on our core, higher margin, less capital-intensive businesses in Personal Care and business to business and continue to innovate and invest in our brands for long term growth." Asaleo last traded at 89.5 cents, up from an all-time low of 65.5 cents in December.
Sorbent toilet paper will now be owned by Solaris, after Asaleo Care sold it as part of a $180m deal. Credit:Simon Schluter Global miner Rio Tinto has confirmed that Tropical Cyclone Veronica will cut its iron ore production in 2019, but said it remains on track to meet the "lower end" of its full year production guidance. The miner said Pilbara iron ore operations are resuming following the cyclone, but the cyclone damaged its Cape Lambert A port facility. "As a result, Rio Tinto has declared force majeure on certain contracts and is working with its customers to minimise any disruption in supply," the miner said. Rio said the impact of the cyclone, combined with damage caused by a fire at the Cape Lambert A facility earlier this year, would result in lost production of about 14 million tonnes. "As a result Rio Tinto's Pilbara shipments in 2019 are expected to be at the lower end of the 338 and 350 million tonnes (100 per cent basis) guidance provided," Rio said. Shares in Rio Tinto are nearing the $100 mark, with the stock closing up 1.6 per cent on Friday, at $97.91. Funtastic warns it will deliver a loss for the second half of 2018-19 and margins will be lower than originally expected because of delays in Chill Factor products and the re-launch of Pillow Pets. It is also waiting to see how successful Toy Story 4 is. Accounts filed this morning show net profit for the first half down 60 per cent to $14.3 million. "Additionally, key retailers have become increasingly cautious following the relatively weak fourth quarter of 2018 retail sales and widely reported weakening of consumer confidence and this is expected to further impact revenues and margins in the second half," Funtastic told the market. It has secured $6 million in funding at 12 per cent interest from largest shareholder Jaszac, and has not yet selected a new chief executive from a candidate short list. IG MARKETS SPONSORED POST SPI futures up 18 points or 0.3% to 6189 AUD +0.3% to 70.96 US cents On Wall St: Dow +0.8% S&P 500 +0.7% Nasdaq +0.8% In New York, BHP +1.2% Rio +1.4% Atlassian +3.6% In Europe: Stoxx 50 +1% FTSE +0.6% CAC +1% DAX +0.9% Spot gold +0.2% to $US1292.38 an ounce Brent crude +0.8% to $US68.39 a barrel US oil +1.4% to $US60.14 a barrel Iron ore +2.5% to $US86.81 a tonne Dalian iron ore +1.9% to 633 yuan LME aluminium +0.5% to $US1912.50 a tonne LME copper +1.9% to $US6482.50 a tonne 2-year yield: US 2.26% Australia 1.46% 5-year yield: US 2.23% Australia 1.43% 10-year yield: US 2.41% Australia 1.77% Germany -0.07% US-Australia 10-year yield gap: 64 basis points Good morning and welcome to Markets Live. Your editor today is Lucy Battersby ([email protected]). This blog is not intended as financial advice. IG MARKETS SPONSORED POST The ASX is set for a bright start to the month on the back of a strong performance by Wall Street on Friday. A new day, week, month and quarter today; and what a difference a little time can make. 3 months ago, at least for some, global financial markets stood at the brink of ruin. It was December 24 last year that the S&P500 hit its low, but it wasn't until the start of January that something resembling a turnaround in US stocks transpired. Fast forward to now, and Wall Street is over 12 per cent higher, and though at stages has looked extremely vulnerable to turnarounds, or at least pull-backs, to date, no such thing has occurred. And now, after Friday's trade, the whispering speculation is whether the S&P is headed for new all-time highs. Signs of a pick-up in risk appetite are becoming more apparent on the ASX, though. The play into tech and bio-tech are always good signs. A fluke rally in iron can persist in the short-term and keep the materials space performing well. The fall in the Australian Dollar and RBA rate expectations has done its bit to bolster the market as well, attracting capital to our markets, and inspiring a chase for yield in defensive sectors. https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/rio-tinto-iron-production-sliced-by-cyclone-20190401-h1d0sz.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed
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“Trumpcare” Dead on Arrival: Can We Please Now Try Single Payer?
The Canadian plan also helps Canadians live longer and healthier than Americans. . . . We need, as a nation, to reexamine the single-payer plan, as many individual states are doing. — Donald Trump, The America We Deserve (2000)
The new American Health Care Act has been unveiled, and critics are calling it more flawed even than the Obamacare it was meant to replace. Dubbed “Ryancare” or “Trumpcare” (over the objection of White House staff), the Republican health care bill is under attack from left and right, with even conservative leaders calling it “Obamacare Lite”, “bad policy”, a “warmed-over substitute,” and “dead on arrival.”
The problem for both administrations is that they have been trying to fund a bloated, inefficient, and overpriced medical system with scarce taxpayer funds, without capping its costs. US healthcare costs in 2016 averaged $10,345 per person, for a total of $3.35 trillion dollars, a full 18 percent of the entire economy, twice as much as in other industrialized countries.
Ross Perot, who ran for president in 1992, had the right idea: he said all we have to do is to look at other countries that have better health care at lower cost and copy them.
So which industrialized countries do it better than the US? The answer is, all of them. They all not only provide healthcare for the entire population at about half the cost, but they get better health outcomes than in the US. Their citizens have longer lifespans, fewer infant mortalities and less chronic disease.
President Trump, who is all about getting the most bang for the buck, should love that.
Hard to Argue with Success
The secret to the success of these more efficient systems is that they control medical costs. According to T. R. Reid in The Healing of America, they follow one of three models: the “Bismarck model” established in Germany, in which health providers and insurers are private but insurers are not allowed to make a profit; the “Beveridge model” adopted in Britain, where most healthcare providers work as government employees and the government acts as the single payer for all health services; and the Canadian model, a single-payer system in which the healthcare providers are mostly private.
A single government payer can negotiate much lower drug prices – about half what we pay in the US – and lower hospital prices. Single-payer is also much easier to administer. Cutting out the paperwork can save 30 percent on the cost of insurance. According to a May 2016 post by Physicians for a National Health Program:
Per capita, the U.S. spends three times as much for health care as the U.K., whose taxpayer-funded National Health Service provides health care to citizens without additional charges or co-pays. In 2013, U.S. taxpayers footed the bill for 64.3 percent of U.S. health care — about $1.9 trillion. Yet in the U.S. nearly 30 million of our citizens still lack any form of insurance coverage.
The for-profit U.S. health care system is corrupt, dysfunctional and deadly. In Canada, only 1.5 percent of health care costs are devoted to administration of its single-payer system. In the U.S., 31 percent of health care expenditures flow to the private insurance industry. Americans pay far more for prescription drugs. Last year, CNN reported, Americans paid nearly 10 times as much for prescription Nexium as it cost in the Netherlands.
Single payer, or Medicare for All, is the system proposed in 2016 by Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. It is also the system endorsed by Donald Trump in his book The America We Deserve. Mr. Trump confirmed his admiration for that approach in January 2015, when he said on David Letterman:
A friend of mine was in Scotland recently. He got very, very sick. They took him by ambulance and he was there for four days. He was really in trouble, and they released him and he said, ‘Where do I pay?’ And they said, ‘There’s no charge.’ Not only that, he said it was like great doctors, great care. I mean we could have a great system in this country.
Contrary to the claims of its opponents, the single-payer plan of Bernie Sanders would not have been unaffordable. Rather, according to research by University of Massachusetts Amherst Professor Gerald Friedman, it would have generated substantial savings for the government:
Under the single-payer system envisioned by “The Expanded & Improved Medicare For All Act” (H.R. 676), the U.S. could save $592 billion – $476 billion by eliminating administrative waste associated with the private insurance industry and $116 billion by reducing drug prices . . . .
According to OECD health data, in 2013 the British were getting their healthcare for $3,364 per capita annually; the Germans for $4,920; the French for $4,361; and the Japanese for $3,713. The tab for Americans was $9,086, at least double the others. With single-payer at the OECD average of $3,661 and a population of 322 million, we should be able to cover all our healthcare for under $1.2 trillion annually – well under half what we are paying now.
The Problem Is Not Just the High Cost of Insurance
That is true in theory; but governments at all levels in the US already spend $1.6 trillion for healthcare, which goes mainly to Medicare and Medicaid and covers only 17 percent of the population. Where is the discrepancy?
For one thing, Medicare and Medicaid are more expensive than they need to be, because the US government has been prevented from negotiating drug and hospital costs. In January, a bill put forth by Sen. Sanders to allow the importation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada was voted down. Sanders is now planning to introduce a bill to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, for which he is hoping for the support of the president. Trump indicated throughout his presidential campaign that he would support negotiating drug prices; and in January, he said that the pharmaceutical industry is “getting away with murder” because of what it charges the government. As observed by Ronnie Cummins, International Director of the Organic Consumers Association, in February 2017:
. . . [B]ig pharmaceutical companies, for-profit hospitals and health insurers are allowed to jack up their profit margins at will. . . . Simply giving everyone access to Big Pharma’s overpriced drugs, and corporate hospitals’ profit-at-any-cost tests and treatment, will result in little more than soaring healthcare costs, with uninsured and insured alike remaining sick or becoming even sicker.
Besides the unnecessarily high cost of drugs, the US medical system is prone to over-diagnosing and over-treating. The Congressional Budget Office says that up to 30 percent of the health care in the US is unnecessary. We use more medical technology then in other countries, including more expensive diagnostic equipment. The equipment must be used in order to recoup its costs. Unnecessary testing and treatment can create new health problems, requiring yet more treatment, further driving up medical bills.
Drug companies are driven by profit, and their market is sickness – a market they have little incentive to shrink. There is not much profit to be extracted from quick, effective cures. The money is in the drugs that have to be taken for 30 years, killing us slowly. And they are killing us. Pharmaceutical drugs taken as prescribed are the fourth leading cause of US deaths, after heart disease, cancer and stroke.
The US is the only industrialized country besides New Zealand that allows drug companies to advertise pharmaceuticals. Big Pharma spends more on lobbying than any other US industry, and it spends more than $5 billion a year on advertising. Lured by drug advertising, Americans are popping pills they don’t need, with side effects that are creating problems where none existed before. Americans compose only 5 percent of the world’s population, yet we consume fully 50 percent of Big Pharma’s drugs and 80 percent of the world’s pain pills. We not only take more drugs (measured in grams of active ingredient) than people in most other countries, but we have the highest use of new prescription drugs, which have a 1 in 5 chance of causing serious adverse reactions after they have been approved.
The US death toll from prescription drugs taken as prescribed is now 128,000 per year. As Jon Rappaport observes, with those results Big Pharma should be under criminal investigation. But the legal drug industry has grown too powerful for that. According to Dr. Marcia Angell, former editor in chief of the New England Journal of Medicine, writing in 2002:
The combined profits for the ten drug companies in the Fortune 500 ($35.9 billion) were more than the profits for all the other 490 businesses put together ($33.7 billion). Over the past two decades the pharmaceutical industry has [become] a marketing machine to sell drugs of dubious benefit, [using] its wealth and power to co-opt every institution that might stand in its way, including the US Congress, the FDA, academic medical centers, and the medical profession itself.
It’s Just Good Business
US healthcare costs are projected to grow at 6 percent a year over the next decade. The result could be to bankrupt not only millions of consumers but the entire federal government.
Obamacare has not worked, and Ryancare is not likely to work. As demonstrated in many other industrialized countries, single-payer delivers better health care at half the cost that Americans are paying now.
Winston Churchill is said to have quipped, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.” We need to try a thrifty version of Medicare for all, with negotiated prices for drugs, hospitals and diagnostic equipment.
Ellen Brown is the founder of the Public Banking Institute and a Research Fellow at the Democracy Collaborative. She is the author of a dozen books including the best-selling Web of Debt, on how the power to create money was usurped by a private banking cartel; and The Public Bank Solution, on how the people can reclaim that power through a network of publicly-owned banks. She has written over 300 articles, posted at EllenBrown.com; and co-hosts a radio program on PRN.FM called “It’s Our Money with Ellen Brown.”
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Brexit Briefing: Austria Brings Populism Back Into Focus
Talking Points
– Austria will hold a snap election in October and the Eurosceptic right-wing Freedom Party will likely be a member of a new governing coalition.
– That’s a risk for the Euro, which is currently benefiting from Donald Trump’s problems in the US.
– Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage of key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.
Elections have already passed this year in the Netherlands and France without giving the markets too much to worry about, and are likely to pass too in France (again), the UK and Germany without upsetting the applecart. But what about Austria?
The little Alpine nation that was once at the heart of an empire and is now an EU member is to hold an early snap parliamentary election on October 15 after persistent rows within the governing coalition. As a result, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which is Eurosceptic, anti-immigration and anti-Islam, could become a member of a new ruling coalition.
While this would not have the market impact a far-right victory in France would have had, it would certainly bring the subject of populism back into focus after the votes for Donald Trump and Brexit, and would again raise the specter of a Euro-Zone breakup.
The FPÖ led the opinion polls for more than a year before the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) elected 30-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz as its new leader on Sunday, putting it ahead of the FPÖ. Kurz has been likened to France’s Emmanuel Macron and has revitalized his party. However, no party is likely to win outright, and the FPÖ could well become part of a new government.
An EU referendum – like the UK’s – would unlikely be held immediately, but strong pre-election polling by the FPÖ would clearly be a risk for the Euro and help curb the recent strength of EUR/USD on Trump’s mounting problems.
Chart: EUR/USD Daily Timeframe (2017 to Date)
Chart by IG
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Today’s portfolios “Can’t get no satisfaction” from yesterday’s instruments
The Beatles, The Rolling Stones, and The Who captured our imagination (as they did much of the world’s) from the ‘60s through the ‘90s. While we still love listening to them today, we can’t help but notice that modern bands use a variety of new instruments. While guitars and drums are still ubiquitous, it’s hard to find a band today that doesn’t also have a MacBook laptop plugged into a DJ controller and a deck of synthesizers to create richer and deeper overtones for their music.
The investment-instrument landscape has evolved similarly over recent decades. When The Who sang “Talkin’ ‘bout my generation,” the portfolios of that generation would have been well served by traditional high-quality fixed income instruments, such as Treasury bonds, but after a forty-year, 1000 basis point rally, the portfolios of today’s generation “…Can’t Get No Satisfaction,” as The Rolling Stones said, with yields on most components of the Bloomberg-Barclays Aggregate index currently below 1%.
With a nod to the Eagles in “The Long Run,” it will be difficult to generate attractive positive real returns from high quality fixed income over a long time horizon, until and unless yields reset meaningfully higher (something we don’t foresee for quite some time). In the meantime, investors will need to employ new instruments – MacBook and synthesizer equivalents – to create the portfolio enhancements necessary to meet income and return targets, while still solving for the myriad market influences that have no historical precedent today.
These secular influences have become even more onerous with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. A cataclysmic global economic shock that will result in lingering headwinds to growth and inflation for years to come. But offsetting this is an epic global policy response that has exacerbated the existing dearth of attractive yielding assets, while temporarily removing the real economy left tail risk of an entrenched and deep recession. Unpacking the nuances of these policies and understanding the influences they’ll continue to have on 2020 asset markets is critical in order to identify the new investment instruments that will help our portfolios remain resilient.
The extraordinary U.S. fiscal and monetary response
The U.S. policy response has been the most remarkable of the developed markets, not least because of the explicit marriage of monetary and fiscal policy for the first time since World War II. In fact, in the first four months of 2020, the U.S. government ran a fiscal deficit of about $1.5 trillion while the Federal Reserve purchased nearly $1.8 trillion of Treasuries, amounting to a direct transfer of ~$1.5 trillion in printed money from the central bank to the private sector. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office estimates a $3.8 trillion federal deficit for fiscal year 2020, ending September 30, leaving another roughly $2 trillion to spend over the next 3.5 months. To wit, the Treasury currently holds $1.5 trillion in cash, shattering the previous record high, representing demonstrable real-economy policy “dry powder.” The impact of such massive Main Street targeted programs could be the equivalent of almost 37% higher household income over these crisis months, than was the case pre-crisis.
These U.S. policies have also had an immense impact on the financial economy. As with previous bouts of quantitative easing (QE), the Fed bought large chunks of fixed income assets, thereby growing its balance sheet relative to the size of the U.S. Aggregate index in ways that create a “crowding in” effect – essentially forcing investors to buy ever-riskier assets – and the 2020 version of QE has been unprecedented in that regard. The Fed has purchased assets that equate to nearly 10% the size of the U.S. Aggregate index over the last 100 days, bringing the balance sheet to more than 30% the size of this index and shattering its previous record share.
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To be sure, the job losses have been devastating to many, and certain segments of the labor market will be negatively impacted indefinitely. However, the first economic readings from the initial phases of the nascent U.S. economic reopening provide evidence that these polices have been highly effective at stabilizing overall consumption, as well as building private sector savings that now provides an important buffer to the uncertainties that lie ahead. As a case in point, the overall policy response resulted in April data on personal consumption spiking with a record increase, which contrasts starkly with the ugly labor market data we’ve seen in the wake of the lockdowns. As April’s unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, U.S. personal income climbed 8.5% from January’s pre-virus rate. Moreover, through the first four months of 2020, U.S. personal saving has risen by $907 billion, more than twice as much as the last four months of 2019. Relatedly, U.S. commercial bank deposits have grown by near $2.1 trillion since the end of 2019. Thus, there is massive dry powder to offset lost 2020 growth potential, which is estimated to be around $1.1 trillion (estimated at roughly a 5% full year 2020 U.S. GDP contraction).
The policy response in Europe
Simultaneously, Europe has also instituted some critical initiatives that constructively marry fiscal and monetary policy. In what appears to be a “Here Comes The Sun” moment for Europe, the EU Recovery Fund transcends the decade-long intra-continental debate on how to allocate fiscal leniency. Instead, the Coronavirus crisis has given way to an increasingly common narrative among policymakers that no country is at fault for the pandemic and that this exogenous, symmetric, shock has produced asymmetric outcomes. Accordingly, the EU Recovery Response is intended to provide a disproportionate benefit to peripheral countries, with Italy, Spain, and Greece appearing to be key beneficiaries.
Indeed, PEPP’s flexibility on both the timing and destination of policy relief, means the Recovery Fund will likely bring sovereign spreads closer to pre-Covid-19 levels. The mutualization of the program’s financing is also an important structural evolution for markets as the EU will ultimately become the largest global class of AAA assets in coming years. The EU already has roughly EUR 50 billion in bonds and we estimate that could ultimately grow to nearly EUR 850 billion over time, making it a major sovereign bond market comparable to Germany and France. Even a $100 billion re-allocation by foreign exchange reserve managers from USD into EUR bonds would be significant for FX markets.
We are witnessing a historic time for Europe and a potential investment game-changer for markets there. Few incentives have existed over recent years to drive investment toward Europe, but with European asset valuations relatively attractive today, and potentially efficacious economic policy now in place, a low geopolitical risk profile, and U.S. investors increasingly nervous about the upcoming election, Europe may be the beneficiary of incremental capital flows.
The upshot for asset allocation
So, virus-shock challenged fundamentals have quite possibly been more than offset by a blunt-force global policy response. At the same time, a deficit of attractive yielding assets has been compounded by aggressive central bank QE. For asset allocators, a complex, but opportunity-rich, environment of dispersion has become a dominant influence over portfolio construction.
In fixed income, high quality yields are too low to justify holding meaningful positions, so optimal portfolio construction involves moving down the quality spectrum. However, the paradigm of relying on traditional monikers of “Investment grade” and “high yield” is “All Over Now” (hat tip to the Stones). Indeed, the old orthodoxy of maximizing yield for a given rating has given way to a world where IG and HY have “Come Together” (Beatles) in ways that make industry and security selection far more important than adhering to generic asset-rating labels. For example, all else equal, we’d rather own a BB-rated communications company than a BBB-rated energy company.
The same is true for equities, where we choose to eschew the conventional debate about the relative merits of factors such as growth vs. value. Today, identifying durable cash flow generation is the holy grail of equity investing. The wedge between growth vs. no-growth entities, cash flow generators vs. cash burners, those who make ongoing research and development (R&D) investment vs. those who don’t, etc., is widening. The market is rewarding those who are investing in the instruments of the future, while the relics of the past stagnate.
Relatedly, we are passionate about analysis around leverage, liquidity, and cash flow. We see the hyperbolic narrative of excessive leverage in the U.S. corporate sector as missing critically important free cash flow trends. In fact, balance sheets are broadly quite healthy and companies’ ability to service low yielding debt has arguably never been better. Similarly, the common refrain that equity PE ratios are too high vs. history misses the more relevant metric of free cash flow yield. The obvious and persistent outperformance of companies that generate large cash flows renders traditional valuation metrics less useful and provides a much cleaner comparison to fixed income yields. Through that apples-to-apples lens, free cash flow yields for much of the U.S. equity market offer compelling relative value versus depressed fixed-income yields.
So, the 40-year era of rate declines is largely over. high quality fixed income assets offer tactical opportunities but only de minimis return potential from here. Fiscal stimulus is epic and is creating an impact on savings and consumption that will buoy the economy significantly more than most are expecting. Monetary policy stimulus is ubiquitous and will crowd investors into risk as the singular avenue to generate needed return. Europe has put into place a historic evolution of fiscal policy that radically changes an investment climate that was heretofore relying solely on overly aggressive interest rate policy.
And while the world has been screaming “Gimme Shelter” (Rolling Stones) for the past several months, as people are gradually unlocked from their homes, we have little doubt that pent-up up savings and consumption will transition into real economy velocity and growth. Yet perhaps investors still need just a little bit of “Patience” (Guns ‘N Roses), as the coming U.S. election, increased social unrest, and ongoing coronavirus headlines all risk creating more volatility in markets.
It is against this backdrop that we are tasked with selecting the new instruments for 2020���s portfolio. We plan on employing a slate of middle-quality fixed income instruments, mixed with equity exposure (both in the U.S. and in Europe) to sectors that fall on the right side of leverage, liquidity and cash flow dynamics. That combined with opportunistic use of hedges like duration, gold, FX and volatility tools should create a successful and harmonious portfolio, able to withstand the volatility brought on by ongoing virus uncertainty, and the reflationary pressure brought on by its eventual successful resolution.
Rick Rieder, Managing Director, is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and is Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team. Russell Brownback, Managing Director, is Head of Global Macro positioning for Fixed Income, and both are regular contributors to The Blog. Trevor Slaven, Director, is a portfolio manager on BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income team and is also the Head of Macro Research for Fundamental Fixed Income, and he co-authored this post.
Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks may be heightened for investments in emerging markets. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of June 22, 2020 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member Finra ©2020 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States or elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. USRMH0620U-1222539-1/6 from BlackRock Blog https://www.blackrockblog.com/2020/06/23/todays-portfolios-cant-get-no-satisfaction-from-yesterdays-instruments/
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Asian Bond Market
Bond Barrage, 7 New Deals Today Including Tencent, Macquarie & CITIC; Macy’s Downgraded; Pacific International Warns of Default
Asian bond market, Asian markets are set for a mixed start. Overnight markets sputtered towards the end of trading after a strong session. Economic recovery and coronavirus vaccine hopes by Novavax and Merck & Co supported investor sentiment along with better than expected US data releases. Some of the gains were given up when economic advisor Larry Kudlow said US President Donald Trump was considering new sanctions against China for introducing stricter security measures in Hong Kong (new bonds Hong Kong). Focus now shifts to rising tensions between US and China as Israel has rejected a bid by a Hong Kong-based conglomerate to build the country’s largest desalination plant, buckling to US pressure to curtail Chinese investments in sensitive areas of the economy. Europe’s main and crossover CDS spreads tightened 6.9bp and 32.5bp from last Friday. The US investment-grade CDS spread narrowed 4bp. Asia ex-Japan IG CDS spreads continue to tighten as we see dollar bond deal activity picking up.
New Bond Issues
· Macquarie Bank $ 10yr Tier 2 @ T+350bp area
· CITIC Securities $ 3/5yr @ T+210/235bp area
· Tencent $ 5/10/30/40yr @ T+175/200/220/240bp area (Moody’s rating: A1)
· KDB $ 5yr @ T+125bp area
· Taiyuan State-owned Inv $ 145 mio tap 6.2% 2022 @ 4.7% area
· Shandong Hi-Speed Group $ 363-day @ 4.15% area
· Fantasia Holdings $ 3NC2 @ 12.5% area
Chinese insurance company Ping An Insurance raised $600mn via 5Y bonds at a yield of 2.765%, 240bp over Treasuries and 45bp inside initial guidance of T+285bp area. The bonds, to be issued by Vigorous Champions International and guaranteed by China Ping An Overseas, are expected to have a rating of Baa2 by Moody’s. The bonds carry a change of control put, which can be exercised at 101 if the parent ceases to own 100% of the China Ping An Overseas or if China Ping An Overseas ceases to own 100% of Vigorous Champions International. The new deal was met with strong demand with orders exceeding $3.6bn, 6x issue size. The company last issued a 5Y bond last year at a yield at issuance of 3.67%, 147.5bp over Treasuries.
BOC Aviation raised $750mn via 3.5Y bonds at a yield of 2.825%, 260bp over Treasuries and 40bp inside initial guidance of T+300bp area. This follows a $1bn 5Y bond it issued late last month at a yield of 3.366%, 300bp over Treasuries. The new bonds received strong demand from investors with orders exceeding $4.5bn, 6x issue size.
Fitch Downgrades Macy’s to BB from BB+
Fitch has downgraded the Long Term IDRs for Macy’s Inc and Macy’s Retail Holding Inc to BB to BB+ with a rating outlook of negative. The downgrade and the outlook are based on the interruptions in the business model of Macy’s due to the ongoing pandemic. Fitch expects the leverage to increase to over 15x in 2020 from 2.9x in 2019. Macy’s had ended 2019 with $685mn of cash on its books and has sufficient liquidity to tide over the current shock. The company is restructuring its unsecured revolver of $1.5bn and is in the process of securing a $3bn form ABL which is largely owned by Macy’s itself. The company also has combined debt of $980mn maturing in 2021 and 2022 which would be paid with the cash on hand or revolver borrowings as per Fitch. The Macy’s bonds remained largely stable. The 4.3% bonds maturing in 2043 traded at 53.087 cents on the dollar, down 0.5 points while the 9.5% bonds maturing in 2021 traded at 97.781 cents on the dollar, up 1.21 points.
Fitch Forecasts Darker Days for the Middle East and Africa
Fitch Ratings predicts deterioration of the financial prospects of most sovereign nations in the Middle East and Africa region (MEA) on the back of declining oil prices and the reduced economic activities due to the pandemic. A total of 10 sovereign nations from MEA have been downgraded since the start of 2020 and 8 out of the 33 nations have been placed under a negative outlook, suggesting possible downgrades in the future. 5 out of the 33 nations are rated CCC or below. According to Fitch, the economic growth for most counties in MEA will return only in 2021. The median general government (GG) debt as a share of GDP increased from 36% in 2013 to 60% in 2019.
Pacific International Warns of Potential Default on Its Bonds; In Talks With Temasek Unit for Investment
The Singapore-based shipping company, Pacific International Lines (PIL) has warned of a likelihood of default on its S$60mn 8.5% bonds due Nov 16 this year. PIL has received approval from its creditors to defer interest and principal payments on its debt and to a standstill on enforcement actions until Dec 31 this year. According to the terms of its S$60mn bonds, the payment deferral would lead to an event of default. The issuer said it would hold informal meetings with bondholders to update them on the company’s financial status and/or to discuss restructuring.
A consortium led by Heliconia Capital Management, which is owned by Temasek Holdings, is in talks with the troubled company for a potential investment. According to a Business Times story, DBS Bank has the largest exposure of $260mn, followed by Bangkok Bank at $220mn, Maybank and OCBC. Two entities linked to Temasek are also on the creditor list. Seatown Lionfish, an independent subsidiary of Temasek, together with Broad Peak, a hedge fund in which Temasek is said to be an investor, is owed about $140 million, secured on vessels and PIL’s shares in Singamas, as per the Business Times story.
PIL’s 8.5% bonds due November are currently trading at 86.6 cents on the dollar, up from 81.5 cents since the start of April.
Indonesia’s Bank Rakyat Expects Loan Losses to Surge Amid the Pandemic
Indonesian state-owned lender Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) foresees a sharp deterioration in its earnings as the pandemic has put business activity on a freeze. Micro, small and medium enterprises account for over 50% of the bank’s loan book, the highest among the country’s top four banks, making it more vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic on smaller businesses. The bank’s Finance Director Haru Koesmahargyo says this is the worst crisis faced by the country’s smaller companies in over two decades and expects the bank's loan losses to surge and profits to fall. BRI is deferring principal and interest payments on its loans and has already restructured loans worth IDR101tn ($6.8bn) extended to 1.4mn borrowers. The bank has slashed its loan growth forecast to 5% for this year, from 10-11% set in January. BRI’s dollar bonds have trended higher over the last few months with its 4.625% bonds due 2023 and its 3.95% bonds due 2024 up ~4 points since the start of April to trade at 103.03 and 100.75 currently.
Bailouts Continue for National Champions – France’s Auto Industry Gets €8 Billion
We continue to see more governments bailing out their crucial industries and national champions. The French government has announced an €8bn rescue plan for its car industry, which has been severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal includes €1bn to provide grants of up to €7,000 to encourage citizens to purchase electric vehicles. It also puts money toward investments to make France a centre for electric vehicle output. In return for the relief, the two main French car producers Renault and PSA have promised to focus production in France. According to IHS Market, France was Europe’s top producer of electric and hybrid cars in 2019, with almost 240,000 vehicles, but Germany is set to overtake it by the end of this year. Some other names that have been supported directly or indirectly by their respective governments include Pemex, Qantas, SIA, Lufthansa, Boeing, with most airlines on the list.
Fitch Downgrades Argentina to RD, CDS Holders Eye Payout
Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings downgraded Argentina to Restricted Default (RD), following S&P Global’s downgrade of four of Argentina’s dollar bonds to default last week. We wrote about Argentina’s ongoing negotiations with its bondholders yesterday, which comes after the country failed to pay a $500mn payment last week. The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee said in a statement that it has been asked to rule on whether the missed payment counts as “failure to pay” credit event, given that two of the three major credit rating agencies have downgraded it to RD. According to the latest data compiled by ISDA, there is net $1.5bn worth of bets on Argentina’s credit default swaps (CDS). CDS are financial instruments that payout to holders when a bond issuer defaults, thereby reducing the risk to the bondholders. However, CDS are also used to speculate against an issuer remaining solvent.
BEV Term of the Day:
ZIRP
ZIRP or zero interest rate policy is the monetary policy of stimulating growth by keeping interest rates very close to zero. This policy encourages investors to pursue low-cost borrowing rather than savings. The linear extension of ZIRP might lead to NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy), as seen in the Eurozone, where borrowers are paid to borrow. Such a policy is used to combat deflation and to promote economic recovery. ZIRP may lead to unconventional monetary policy such as quantitative easing being implemented to increase the monetary base. ZIRP has been adopted by Japan, the Eurozone and more recently, the US.
Top Gainers & Losers – 27-May-20*
Talking Heads
On US Economic Recovery And Unemployment Rate – Fed’s James Bullard
“Growth right now is probably the worst it’s ever been” with much of Wall Street predicting a “minus 40%” contraction in second-quarter economic growth, Bullard said. “The third quarter very likely, right behind the worst quarter, will be the best quarter of all time on the growth perspective.” Although the jobless rate was 14.7% last month, “I think we will be under double digits by the end of the year,” he said.
On US Economic Recovery And Unemployment Rate – JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon
“You could see a fairly rapid recovery,” Mr Dimon said Tuesday at a virtual conference hosted by Deutsche Bank AG. “The government has been pretty responsive, large companies have the wherewithal, hopefully, we’re keeping the small ones alive.” Dimon, who runs the largest U.S. bank, pointed to economists’ forecasts that show unemployment spiking to around 18% this quarter, then falling to 14% in the third quarter and declining to about 10% or 11% by the end of the year.
On Lufthansa’s Bail Out – Michael O’Leary, chief executive at Ryanair
“Lufthansa is addicted to state aid,” Mr O’Leary added, arguing that the €9bn bailout would allow the group to “engage in below-cost selling or buy up even more competition for the next number of years”. Mr O’Leary plans to appeal against the rescue package, which he said would “further strengthen Lufthansa’s monopoly-like grip on the German air travel market”.
On Soaring Public Debt in the Eurozone – ECB
The ECB, which is due to update its economic forecasts and review its monetary policy next week, has predicted that the eurozone will suffer its deepest postwar recession this year, with GDP set to contract by between 5 and 12 per cent. It warned on Tuesday that a more severe downturn than expected risked putting public finances “on an unsustainable path in already highly indebted countries” if combined with higher government borrowing costs and borrowers’ defaults resulted in loan guarantees being called in by lenders.
On Yield Curve Control by The Fed – Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities
“We do expect yield-curve control by year-end,” she said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues paint a bleak picture of the economy’s near-term prospects, and they’ll need a strategy to deal with that, she added. “They can’t keep a negative economic outlook without easing monetary policy further.”
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Events to Look Out for Next Week
Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be dominated by the initial claims data in the US, in the Eurozone by the consumer confidence figures and in the UK data will present the extent of virus disruptions. Also, China’s annual rite of spring, which was delayed by more than two months due to the Covid-19 outbreak, will finally take place next week.
Monday – 18 May 2020
Gross Domestic Product (JPY) – The Japanese Q1 prel. GDP is anticipated to show a relatively small loss to -4.6% y/y and -1.2% q/q, from the -7.1% and -1.8% respectively, as the fallout from Covid-19 has clearly increased recession risks.
Eurogroup Meeting
Tuesday – 19 May 2020
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further easing. The bank in its last meeting kept main policy tools unchanged, and at the same time the RBA broadened the pool of collateral in daily market ops to include ones issued by non-banks with IG ratings. At the same time the bank said it is prepared to scale government bond purchases back up again if necessary.
Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May are expected to remain unchanged. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly at 3.9% (3M) from 4.0%.
Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for May is expected to have dipped to -42.3, after plunging to 28 in April. This will be important for retail to actually recover as consumers need to be confident enough to go out and spend again.
Housing Starts and Building Permits (USD , GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should dip to a 1.000 mln pace in April, after falling to a 1.216 mln pace in March. Permits are expected to fall to 0.800 mln in April. All the housing measures will give up ground in April with shelter at home orders, though most states earmarked construction as essential, and many construction sites across the country remained open. Before the pandemic, permits had been following a solid growth path that began in Q2 of 2019 fueled by low mortgage rates, alongside strength in starts, and this strength will hopefully resume as the pandemic subsides.
Fed’s Chair Powell testifies (USD, GMT 14:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
Wednesday – 20 May 2020
PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China in its first-quarter report, announced a more aggressive monetary stimulus. In this meeting the should provide guidances on the next move in its Loan Prime Rates.
Retail Sales & Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to finally give the first real insight into the UK’s post-lockdown economic hit. April’s retails should drop to -0.2% m/m. Inflation is seen unchanged with overall inflation expected to stand at 1.5% y/y, and core at 1.6% y/y.
Consumer Price Index and Core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Headline inflation rates in Germany and the Eurozone are very low at the moment, largely thanks to the impact of the global slump in oil prices.There is much to suggest that headline inflation will fall further as global demand is depressed and unemployment rising sharply, which will keep a lid on wage pressures even as economies move out of lock downs. The final inflation rate for April stands at 0.5% .
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI saw a sharp contraction in March that was more pronounced than expected but not a shock given the severe impact on the economy of stay at home orders and the tumble in oil prices. The April number however is anticipated slightly firmer at -0.4% from -0.6%.
FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes.
Thursday – 21 May 2020
RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 02:30)
Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. May composite PMI for both Germany and Eurozone forecasted to register an upwards reading to 31.0 and 25.7 respectively following the huge drop seen last month. However clearly every reading below 50 suggest contraction in the economy.
Markit Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The final UK services PMI (May 3) was revised slightly higher – to 13.4 from 12.3 reported initially. Still, as has been seen in other countries, the service sector drop was eye watering, diving to 13.4 (revised from 12.3) from 34.5 in March, with April being first month of data to fully capture the true impact of the coronavirus/lock down. The data reflects the wide extent of business mothballing due to the pandemic and consequence lock down, which commenced in the UK on March 23rd. This is not expected to change significantly in May, even though a slightly better reading is seen at 22.1.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims fell -195k to 2,981k in the week ended May 9, following the prior week’s -691k decline to 3,176k (was 3,169k). Initial claims have been declining since surging at the end of March to 6,867k.
Fed’s Chair Powell and Fed’s Clarida speech
Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate.
Friday – 22 May 2020
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to give further glimpse into Covid-19 damage.
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Canada’s retail sales growth moderated in February, which should give way to hefty declines in March. The ex-autos aggregate was flat after a revised 0.1% gain (was -0.1%). This report is another look in the rear view mirror and the last “clean” retail sales report for a while. Statistics Canada notes that the onset of COVID-19 and rail blockages impacted retail sales by a “negligible amount.”
Click here to access the HotForex Economic Calendar
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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Events to Look Out for Next Week published first on https://alphaex-capital.blogspot.com/
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